The Balkans Project

Ever since 1992, when Greece’s major political parties agreed that the word “Macedonia” could not be accepted as any part of the newly established Balkan republic’s name, the Macedonian naming dispute has continued to threaten the security of the Western Balkans.  Greece’s persistent demands for a name change have led to an upsurge in nationalist agitation in both countries, and have prevented wider European recognition of the Republic of Macedonia, a country which, if granted international legitimacy, could serve as a stabilizing influence in the region.

Given that Greece is in favor of Balkan enlargement, its current position is considered by many to be self-defeating, as it essentially rules out any chance of Macedonian accession to the European Union under its current name.  Unfortunately, the EU is unlikely to pressure Athens to change its mind, as many EU capitals now prefer a slowing down of the enlargement process and are especially loath to accept a Western Balkan candidate. 

In the Republic of Macedonia, where EU accession is a top priority, there has been some support for the idea of a name change in exchange for a promise of EU membership.  However, Greece will only open the road to EU accession in the first place if Macedonia changes its constitution first.  That is to say, under Greece’s current policy, Macedonia must change its name for the mere promise of starting talks with an uncertain outcome.  Macedonia’s concerns are twofold:

1.) It will change its name only to be denied accession on the basis of one of 70 veto points where unanimity in the EU is required before any candidate country can become a member.

2.) No Greek government can guarantee that any concession made today – to unlock the door to EU accession talks – will actually stick once a different Greek government comes to power in a few years time.

Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative, has put forth a proposal to break the Macedonian deadlock that both addresses these concerns and takes into account Greece’s position on the issue.  According to Knaus, “It can be done through a constitutional amendment in Skopje that changes the name of the country today, allowing Athens to support the start of EU accession talks later this year, but that also foresees that the change will only enter into force on the day Macedonia actually joins the EU.”

Under Knaus’s proposal, Greece can claim a major victory immediately by arguing that it is only opening the path to accession in return for genuine and lasting constitutional change, something no other Greek government has been able to achieve.  The proposal would also allay Macedonian fears of an uncertain outcome in the EU- if for some reason Macedonia never joins the EU, it will never have to change its name.  If enacted, Knaus’s proposal has the potential to end a long-standing political deadlock and send a tremendously beneficial signal to the whole of the Balkans.